Motorola continues to shrink from the mobile business with the recent loss of their push email subsidiary, formally Good Technology, to its historic rival, Visto.  Whilst Motrola’s purchase of Good a couple of years ago never really appeared to be a good match, it does illustrate how Motorola is heading in the opposite direction from its competitors. 

They are falling over themselves to provide value added services to build a degree of brand loyalty.  Nokia has Ovi, Apple iTunes and even Microsoft is getting into the game.  Motorola has Kodak of course, two great brands fizzling out together.

How exactly will the anticipated synergies between Visto and Good pan out or will Good just fade away.  Really it doesn’t matter too much as Microsoft, RIM and Google are dominating the mobile email space, Nokia is not too far behind either. 

It’ll be fascinating to see how, over the next two years, Visto copes against these industry heavy weights.

 

http://www.visto.com/news/releases/09.02.24_good.asp

Coinciding with Mobile World Congress, a triumvirate consisting of the UN, Vodafone and the Rockefeller Foundation are to unite in providing help and advice to remote and disadvantaged communities.  

According to the UN press release, the mHealth Alliance will attempt to maximise the benefits of health information through the use of mobile technology and the 2.2 billion handsets in the developing world.

Mobile networks have a clear advantage in providing communications where more traditional fixed line infrastructures are impractical for so many reasons.  Unfortunately various projects have foundered on the long decision making process, committees and research leaving little if any money for actual deployments.

This is a shame as low cost technology tailored to these environments clearly exists, even for the remotest of communities, and the widest of health care, education and advisory needs.  It will be interesting to see what, if any, real achievements, other than more reports, the mHealth Alliance will announce at next years MWC.

 

On a more positive note Bill Gates has enough money, and now the time, to make a positive contribution.  In effect there is a decision making committee of only two, he and his wife. 

Micro capital projects, and the ability to get the best price for crops, are proven to raise families and villages from poverty.  Virtual money through PayPal and web only cards are well established at providing very low cost banking facilities in first world markets.  Combining the two to make transfer of funds using mobile technology can simplify many daily transactions, but importantly ensure capital reaches the families who can most benefit from it.

There is no reason why both can’t succeed but many motivated people have invested time and effort into such projects in the past only to be let down by their sponsors.  My guess is Bill will succeed where the mHealth Alliance will get bogged down in officialdom.

As expected, Palm is demonstrating the UMTS version of their Pre smartphone at MWC.

Built for the world outside of CDMA, UMTS is almost everywhere these days, Vodafone (their UK carrier of choice) may be launching the Pre sometime in the second half of the year.

So to get the developers writing apps in time for Pre’s launch, O’Reilly publishers are launching a developer’s guide. The first chapter is already on-line via Palm’s developer web site (http://developer.palm.com/ ) so that should kick start some interest from dissatisfied Android developers.

BBC’s interview with Palm’s CEO Ed Colligan demonstrates a passion for the company that has broken with the past to design the Pre.  Palm has an immense history in this market and in it’s slimmed down form has found the energy to surpass the iPhone at every functional level.

Now that the Pre will also support Flash, it seems that Palm will be soon be the internet anywhere company especially after Apple’s disappointing start to the year.

The BBC’s Cellan-Jones interview of Google’s Hugo Barra was quite informative in a negative sort of way.  With only one ‘new’ handset confirmed from HTC, the Android platform seems to be spluttering to a halt.

HTC’s Magic seems on the face of it to be a G1 without the keyboard.  Also T-Mobile has been passed over, or did T-Mobile pass over it, for Vodafone as Magic’s launch partner.

In his interview, Barra seemed to be shrugging his verbal shoulders to the questions on what Google is expecting from Android and the market.  A thousand applications he felt wasn’t bad (compare that to the avalanche of choice in Apple’s App Store).  To the question of why there is not a choice of handsets Barra effectively said that as an open source project how would they know?

If Android is truly a big part of Google’s future strategy then they should know.  With T-Mobile floundering with the G1, and no other manufacturers promising delivery of the next generation Android handset, Google doesn’t appear to care.  The market won’t take care of itself, and Google will lose out to Ovi and Microsoft in the web apps department if it can’t motivate itself to care about Android. 

It says a lot that Acer would rather pay Microsoft licensing fees, reducing their margins, than take Google’s free OS.

After a torturous 2008, Symbian have recaptured some of the tech high ground, but not through Nokia.

With a new breezy image and some killer graphics, SF is on a real uptick at MWC.

Unfortunately although Nokia announced some solid evolutionary handsets, there has been little to impress from SF’s temporary owner, even the launch of Nokia’s first 8MPx camera N86 seems to have been a bit flat.

Their competitors though are having a fine old time.  S60 powered handsets such as Samsung’s i8910 and Sony Ericsson’s Idou have trounced the Nokia newbie’s.  From screen acreage, to cameras, Xenon flash, capacitive screen technology, Nokia’s competitors have thrown down a substantial gauntlet.

Under its temporary ownership, Nokia will have absorbed some of Symbian’s creative employees so perhaps we can expect something special in the UI department later this year, or not.

If you run a small business and been tempted by a BlackBerry but couldn’t justify the cost of the push email then Orange may have a deal.  Until the end of March if you take out a business contract with a BlackBerry handset, you get the BlackBerry Internet Service (BIS) thrown in free of charge for the duration of the contract.

This is very useful if you are running POP or IMAP accounts.  Though it saves £4.25 (+VAT) per month, make sure the rest of the tariffs suit your needs before committing to a 12 month contract.

 

Research and development, so critical to Nokia’s success in the past, is taking another knock from the accountants.

Following the lead set by the car industry, Nokia have decided to temporarily lay off employees at their manufacturing site in Salo to bring production in line with demand.  This mainly affects high end handsets which are viewed as particularly susceptible in the current recession.

Potentially more problematic is the mobile device R&D centre at Jyväskylä will be closed affecting the 320 employees based there.  Nokia admit that the Jyväskylä team has been contributed to the success of many of their hit products.  So is it a good idea to disband a successful team especially as the success of Nokia has been in its innovation?  Time will tell.

 

http://www.nokia.com/A4136001?newsid=1289393

With the recession deepening  Gartner predicts that video telepresence could replace 2.1 million airline seats per year by 2012. 

Telepresence has had a chequered history producing some very strange and strained conversations.  Trying to hold a video conference with none of the pre and post amble associated with social interaction has been seen to be a problem.  A recent case of the potential pitfalls was illustrated when a Fenland councillor conferenced into a meeting from Australia creating some bad feeling.

But the accountants will want to save money and travel costs absorb a lot of it and keep people away from their colleagues and family; though some will say this gives everyone a holiday.

Pondering for a moment though, if video conferencing does become acceptable and users adjust to its constraints and foibles, could this stimulate mobile video calling?  Probably not, as even if you have remembered to smarten yourself up, the unfortunate angles the mobiles are place will do little for your personal image, or grooming habits.

Apple have been ticked off for promising the full internet using their iPhone Safari based browser but then failing to deliver Flash and Java based sites.  Evidently Apple dismissed Flash as being too heavy on resources and not wanted by users.

This though was not what the advertising standards people thought and gave Apple a slap over the wrist for promising more than they could deliver.

However good news reported by the BoyGenius, comes from Adobe’s CEO Shantanu Narayen who let slip that Adobe is working with Apple to enable rendering of Flash based web sites in a future iPhone firmware release.  If so, Apple will have started addressing that long list of features requirements that competitors supports yet the iPhone lacks. 

One of the pains of receiving documents on the move is the inability to make changes.  BlackBerry has suffered from this for a long time.  However Quickoffice on Symbian at least allowed some limited editing and as such gave Nokia one of the few leads it had over its arch competitor.

The latest release of Quickoffice, V6, now gets over the frustration of not being able to open a password protected document.  Often used by legal and execs to protect documents in transit, password protection had until now had been a complete no no for mobiles.

Other useful features include support for Office 2007 file formats, improved document editing and file management.

So for anyone using Nokia’s E63, E71 and E90 handsets for business, Quickoffice V6 is an absolute must of an upgrade.

Buying business handsets with a well thought out voice and data contract should be a breeze.  The original two big UK networks (Vodafone & O2 –BT Cellnet) have had decades of experience, but try as I might only Vodafone seems to have any idea of customer service.

10 business handsets on BlackBerry or iPhone will not make a network, but it is still a significant chunk of money over a two year contract.  First up is Vodafone.  I want 10 BlackBerry 8900 and I was put straight into a business team.  Since then it has been difficult to fault Vodafone’s response and willingness to help.  But hey, the iPhone 3G is very nice, I have one and in spite of its faults it’s an inspirational mobile.

So I head off to O2.  The experience is diametrically opposite to Vodafone.  While the tele sales staff are very personable, they appear to lack any ability to talk about O2’s products.  For one thing there is no instant call pick up, secondly the person then wants to find out who you are, how you found them, be warned they are recording the call.  Then when you eventually can talk about the information you want, they have to transfer the call.  The next person along then can’t deal  with the enquiry either as you ‘must’ have a personal visit from a sales rep.  Sorry all I want is basic information on services and prices. 

So after being promised a call back, nothing.  So I phone again and the same happens, with the who, what where.  I feel that I have to bend to their sales process and please don’t ask for information as we won’t or can’t give it out. 

So O2 has now left me with another call back before Friday, but could be Wednesday, to talk about a business sale of 10 handsets.  Do I feel positive about O2, no.  Do I feel positive about Vodafone, yes.

Trouble is Vodafone think data roaming is still a 2004 activity and priced accordingly. O2, according to their web site, is much more a 2009 concept.  So I’ll grit my teeth a little more and see what O2 can do, but Vodafone wins by a mile in the customer service sweepstake.

Whilst Palm has designed PDA’s and mobiles for many years more than Apple, Apple’s COO Tim Cook is mooting that he doesn’t like the similarities between some new competitors and the eponymous iPhone.

It’s normal in mobile for legal battles to go on for years and engorge lawyers’ pockets.  So it may be with the Apple and Palm in the near future.  Disputes around multitouch (Apple), docking stations (Palm), software switches (Palm) and a myriad number of design tweaks, UI gestures, process implementation lawsuits will unfold if Apple feel they are on the back foot.  (precentral.net)

Whilst Palm has little cash to defend themselves at the moment, this may change when the lawyers fully assess Palm’s patent war chest, and start speculative legal action against Apple, Nokia, Samsung et al.

Instead of wasting time and energy on puerile patent nuances, Apple must concentrate on maintaining their product pre-eminence as the Pre will be ideally placed to be the iPhone’s technical nemesis.

On the face of it this is another boring network announcement, yet Sweden has always been an important test ground for new mobile technology and services.

The initial roll out of 4G base stations and routers in Stockholm is happening now.  Based on LTE (Long Term Evolution) standards the service will be live in 2010, and initially operated by Ericsson themselves.  This will get the bugs out of the system for other deployments.

The UK tends to lag behind Scandinavian deployments by around two years.  So expect to benefit from much faster mobile services in 2012, by which time handsets (Infineon have announced an initial LTE chip) and services should have evolved to the aspirations we now have of our mobile friend.

Most 3.5G smartphones, especially Nokia’s, are able to connect a laptop to the internet without any special data plans, or cables for that matter.  Not so for the iPhone as AT&T, O2 et al mostly offer all you can eat data plans which they feel could be abused if the iPhone were used as a net dongle.

With that in mind AT&T was mooting a $30 tethering supplement on their already expensive tariffs.  Now, according to macblogz.com, AT&T may reduce this premium to only $10.  Whilst $10 is not much, $0 is less and Palm’s Pre is already making this point quite loudly.

One moment it’s there and the next it’s gone.  Nokia, according to The Boy Genius, has pulled its N810 WiMAX internet tablet before it had properly gone into the channel.   With WiMAX on the go slow deployment path it’s understood that Nokia don’t see the reason to support the limited market.

The analysts also don’t appear to be keeping the WiMAX faith either, demoting it to a fixed wireless replacement rather than a realistic competitor to LTE 4G mobile.  With that view Richard Wndsor, telecoms analyst with Nomura Bank, has reduced his WiMAX market forecast from $8bn to $4bn.  This approach concurs with all that I’m hearing in the market.  WiMAX is a great play for urban fixed substitution and remote communities, but not for a truly mobile world.

On the other hand OQO is still keeping faith, demonstrating their nifty UMPC on Sprint’s Xohm WiMAX network.  Proudly proclaiming a 3-5 time faster download speed at 2-4 Megabits per second than any available mobile service.  Perhaps this is remarkable for the US, but it’s less so here in Europe where 7.2Mbps is offered (though rarely delivered).   With HSUPA in deployment and HSPA+ on the horizon, OQO’s and Sprint’s announcements have already been upstaged.

 

http://www.telecoms.com/itmgcontent/tcoms/news/articles/20017604450.html

http://www.boygeniusreport.com/2009/01/07/nokia-pulls-plug-on-n810-wimax-edition/

There will be a point in time I don’t have to concern myself with UIQ, especially as UIQ Tech has gone into administration. 

O2 obviously decided to bail out of their remaining UIQ inventory with a knock down shop sale of the now defunct Motorola Z10 at only £80 on Pay as You Go (though O2’s web site still shows the higher price).  Though there is no touch screen or WiFi it does offer some great media features for the price.  Some astute buyers are flogging these off at £140 on eBay.

Other bargains should follow, especially the Sony Ericsson G900 with a 5Mpx camera, WiFi and 3G (though no HSPA).  As a final cheerio to my favourite touch screen platform (after the iPhone) the G900 would make a good choice for a disposable media phone (well almost).

De-cluttering can be a tiresome chore, especially seeing all the now naff Christmas gadgets of old.

One throw back that reminded me about what we may have lost is Psion’s 5MX, or, in my case, Ericsson’s cloned version, the MC218.   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psion_5mx

This was pretty much Ericsson’s first leap into the smart device market, predating the Ericsson R380 by a year or two.  What a beast though.

It may not be the smallest PDA out there, but the keyboard is a joy to use almost allowing touch typing.  It could still cut it for on the hoof work with its rather good word processor and spreadsheet applications, infra red modem interface, large high resolution touch screen and 20 hour battery life.  Sony Ericsson even has support pages; after 10 years!

OK so it’s no iPhone basher, but there’s more than a hint of what could have been a great hardware manufacturer before Psion fractured into Symbian. 

Now where’s my Reuters Tandy 100?

The Apple iPhone is, without doubt in my mind, the best combined mobile phone and media player ever developed.  Unfortunately it compares unfavourable with older handsets like Sony Ericsson’s P990i, on even basic features. 

 

So here is a list of things I want from Apple for 2009, though I have no expectation that I will get any of them.

 

 

Core Features

 

Multi tasking of third part applications

Denying third party applications, like LastFM, Fstream and ebay, from running in the background seriously compromises the iPhone’s use as the main mobile and media player.  This is the same problem as with the old Palm OS, and look where that is.  In Apple’s distorted world, users only use the iPod player in the background.  Sorry Apple, some people like to multi task and want to listen to streaming media at the same time as writing emails. 

 

Swapping between applications

Even if there is no multi tasking, there should at least be an easy way of flipping between recent applications rather than exiting and reopening them.

 

Cut & Paste

Not everyone can remember long URL’s or want to retype text from a document to an email, so why hasn’t Apple made an effort to introduce this most basic of features.  Other developers have shown working concepts, and Symbian has had this for years.

 

A unified file system

When I download documents I want to share them between applications, perhaps to edit them or repurpose the content somehow.  Quickoffice is a case in point, an invaluable tool for editing text and spreadsheets that cannot exist under Apple’s strange ideas of corporate working.

 

Side-loading Ringtones

What’s the second thing people do after switching on their shiny new mobile, they want to change the ringtones.  Unless you buy Apple’s ringtones you have to fudge an MP3 track into Apple’s format, and even then only take a small chunk of it.

 

Voice Dial/Response

Why can’t drivers at least reject or answer a call by voice.  Not exactly a radical feature and one that predates the iPhone by at least 8 years.

 

Encryption

Companies and organisations need to encrypt information to definable standards on all mobile devices, something not possible with the iPhone.

 

Turn by Turn Navigation

It’s great to have GPS and a large screen with Google Maps, but the iPhone would be so much more useful with turn by turn navigation.

 

 

Hardware

 

5Mpx Autofocus Camera with video and flash

The Nokia N90 and Sony Ericsson P990, the first of the new wave of media phones, had an autofocus 2Mpx camera on launch with extensive photo controls and video capabilities.  Didn’t Apple look at the competitors when the iPhone was in the design phase?

 

Memory card slot

Whilst it’s nice to have lots of onboard memory, the competition now outclasses the iPhone.  In particular not, being able to swap music, videos, documents and images between the iPhone and other devices is severely limiting.

 

Screen angling

Having such a great video player and screen, it’s disappointing that there is no way of propping up the iPhone with an integral kick stand.

 

 

Messaging

 

Email search

Some mobile email clients allow the search of emails.  Especially useful for corporate Exchange users.

 

Reply/Forward marker

Not seeing if an email has been replied or forwarded is a nuisance.

 

Easily move between Inboxes

There’s no simple method to swap to another email account – you have to back out.

 

Rotate screen in email & SMS

It can be far easier to read and write messages in landscape than in portrait.  Even the 90’s Alcatel One Touch Com had that.

 

Email spell checker

More of a nice to have, but considering the foibles of writing using a virtual keyboard, it would be useful to have a spell checker, especially if auto correct is off.

 

Set out of office flag

Another corporate feature available on BlackBerry’s but not on the iPhone.  Very useful if you have gone away and need to redirect emails.

 

Time and day control of email fetch and push

Though the iPhone’s battery life is much improved, it would be useful to limit the push/pull activity between certain times of day and days of the week, as you can with Dataviz.

 

Access to Exchange Global Address List

Another corporate nice to have is the ability to search in the Global Address List on an Exchange server.

 

Follow up and importance flags

Being able to set follow up flags when browsing email on the road makes dealing with actions later much easier.

 

Change Email tones

Another basic feature missing.

 

 

MMS

Even the Ericsson T68 had MMS from the early days of GPRS, why not a true media device like the iPhone?

 

Forward SMS

Unforgivable omission especially if you share jokes.

 

No SMS reports

It’s comforting to have confirmation that an SMS has been received.  No comfort with the iPhone though.

 

 

Bluetooth – The missing profiles

 

Stereo Bluetooth

All high end hand sets have A2DP stereo headset profile except the iPhone.

 

Push Profile

Images and files can’t be printed or shared wirelessly as there is no Object Push profile.

 

Synchronisation Profile

Neither is there a Synchronisation profile for wireless connectivity to iTunes.

 

Keyboard Profile

No keyboard HID profile for typing reports using a proper keyboard.

 

Dialup Profile

No Bluetooth dialup profile for using iPhone as a modem.  Hardware tethering not possible either.

 

 

No doubt there are more omissions to this list, but the iPhone is still a superb gadget with or without these features.

 

Whilst the rest of the world has suffered from the credit crunch and banks are propped up by our taxes, the mobile industry has ploughed on regardless.

 

The market for mobile technology continues to expand dramatically.  3G & GSM usage has risen with over 3.3billion 3G/GSM subscribers by the end of third quarter of this year (Source GSA).  High speed mobile access continues to grow with now more than 65million subs and 960 plus devices to support the ever growing user numbers.  The market is expanding at a phenomenal pace.

 

But what, in my opinion, have been the most important events of 2008 and what can we expect for 2009.

 

Starting with what have been the best mobile products of 2008

 

These last 12 months has seen the Asian manufacturers embrace touch screen technologies as the way into the mass market.  LG, Samsung, HTC, have all brought out significantly improved and diverse handsets.  But it is Apple that has captured users’ hearts.

 

The original iPhone was so crippled by the lack of applications and 3G data that apart from the, admittedly many, early adopters the original iPhone launch in 2007 was a massive disappointment.  Apple learnt some hard lessons, especially in Europe.  Customers used to high end devices being heavily subsidised were never going to buy a technically backward mobile at a premium price.

 

That all changed with the iPhone 3G that not only gave the world the best mobile phone media player and screen, but also access to decent HSDPA mobile speeds on competitive tariffs and at little upfront cost.  This was uniquely combined with the breathtaking usability of an application store that made it the simplest and cheapest method of getting fun new apps.  Compare and contrast with the mobile networks and other handset manufacturers paltry efforts, and Apple has dominated the third party app market in 2008.

 

Nokia on the other hand seemed to just plod on in its rut of selling the widest range of inoffensive mobiles to as many people as it can.  Notably different was the introduction of the E71, one of the highest calibre handsets from Nokia this year.  With an all metal construction, every connectivity option going, and a reasonable media spec, it has singularly raised Nokia’s profile in the business and professional user market.  In many respects it has put the chunkier N series range of handsets into the shadows.

 

RIM, having seen the threat from Apple inclusion of ActiveSync as businesses migrate to free push email, came back strongly in the last half of the year with the Bold and Storm.  Unfortunately these were rushed to market so whilst the Bold looked good it performed badly with many reported problems especially on Orange.

 

Not without its own bugs, the Storm has nonetheless refreshed BlackBerry’s image as an innovative brand in most users’ minds.  With one of the largest touch screens, and an improved media player, the Storm keeps the pressure on Apple, HTC and especially Nokia.

 

When it comes to advances in media capture, Samsung, LG and Sony Ericsson lead the way.  All have introduced 8mpx camera handsets, but it seems that Samsung has surprised the market by pushing Nokia’s N series to one side with the class leading Symbian based i8510 INNOV8 with 8mpx camera.  No doubt Nokia could create a better handset, but it hasn’t yet.

 

 

What devices or technology have disappointed me the most?

 

For me the biggest disappointment of the year was the failure of Apple to introduce multitasking for iPhone third party applications.  Even some feature phones allow some applications to run concurrently.  Other disappointments were the inability of side-loading applications without having to jailbreak the iPhone first, and impoverished Bluetooth support.

 

Nokia has had a bad time this year as well.  With a shrinking market share and little impact in the US, it is terrible to see such a great company temporarily taking a break from innovation and quality. 

 

The launch of their spear head device of 2008, the N96 in February, offered little to differentiate itself from the preceding N95 8GB.   Much delayed and only available from November, a full 9 months after it was initially shown, the N96 came to market with too many flaws.  It was just too similar in form factor to the cheaper N95 8GB, with its TV capabilities of no use in most countries.  It also shipped with software faults that considering it was an evolutionary device, was quite unforgiveable.

 

Similarly, the Sony Ericsson X1 was late to market and seems downright antiquated with very poor usability in comparison to other HTC manufactured devices.  On the upside voice quality is superb when you can actually make a call.  Perhaps all will come right once Windows Mobile 7 is released, though for HTC and Xperia users this won’t evidently happen until 2010.  Apple and RIM must be pleased.

 

High speed data continues to impress and disappoint in equal measures.  Whilst theoretically offering unlimited mobile broadband, many users are finding that their dictionary interpretation of unlimited differs from those of the operators.  Some unlimited deals top out at 500MB and then only if used in the UK.  Expect a large, very large, bill if surfing abroad, even if using a partner network.  Will the EU finally sort this problem out?  I doubt they will to any great extent, especially with operators facing falling revenues.

 

High speed data also faces more problems with less than national or even city coverage due to under investment.  This has certainly not been helped by the networks attempting to sell high speed mobile data as some sort of home broadband replacement which is saturating the network infrastructure and reducing transmission speeds to a crawl.

 

Unexpectedly shown the exit doors were Nokia’s Intellisync and, less unexpectedly, UIQ.  Both products had a loyal following, but UIQ was never going to survive with S60 Touch and then Symbian being absorbed into Nokia.  Of more concern was the frankly disgraceful abandoning of business customers by Nokia’s perfunctory closure of its Intellisync division, leaving many companies and organisations future mobile strategies in tatters.

 

 

What are the highlights of 2008?

 

Without doubt the launch of the iPhone 3G, with the 2.1 software, has completely changed the market.  As mentioned earlier, the original iPhone was a popular niche product, but the iPhone 3G is a revelation in design and third party application support through the AppStore (not withstanding my other criticisms!)

 

Google’s Android OS rattled the market with the launch of T-Mobile’s G1 handset yet suffered under the glare of the iPhone 3G.  Android shows great promise, though it will take a year or two to settle in as a main stream alternative to Symbian and Apple. 

 

At the lower end of the market there has been wave after wave of new handset introductions all seemingly aimed at giving users the best feature set at the cheapest price.  For me though the best low end handsets both come from 3, the Skype Phone 2 and the INQ1.

 

Fantastically well priced yet offering a feature set targeted at young & web savvy customers, these two handsets give users exactly what they need, easy to access Web 2 applications where ever they want to use them.  Facebook, LastFM, Skype, broadband modem, all at their finger tips.  Simply brilliant.

 

A mobile browser war seems to have developed in 2008.  With Microsoft’s Mobile Explorer seeming moribund, Opera is now shipping as the true face of the internet for Windows Mobile based handsets.  Though coming from opposing sides are Skyfire and Iris.  Though both are in Beta they seem to be worthy competitors to Nokia’s and Microsoft’s efforts.

 

It’s also been impressive watching Nokia concentration on developing a market dominating consumer portal.  Not only has Nokia overpowered the objections of most major networks with (poorly) competing services, they have also become the teenagers’ friend with the launch of “Comes With Music”, the all you can consume music portal. 

 

Though it’s not only media consumption.  Producing content, especially live video broadcasting through Qik, Livecast and others has turned many people into on the spot journalists especially in yet another troubled year.

 

 

Who has shone in the mobile sector in 2008?

 

Apple of course, but also the BBC.  The iPlayer (with a lot of help from the iPhone 3G and the high speed networks) has turned mobile TV from an abject failure to a success story.  Now that the user can control what they want to view, on-line video snacking and podcasts from BBC’s iPlayer is replacing the low quality efforts that the networks tried to foist on their subscribers.

 

Remarkably Three has reaffirmed its leading position in services and network value in 2008, with a string of new handset launches, tariffs, dongles, services and most especially ‘getting’ what users want!  Easy access to all the web applications they use at home, but especially Skype, Facebook and my favourite, LastFM.   It also embraced Nokia’s Comes with Music rather than fighting it.

 

Another mention must go to all the applications developers that year after year have struggled to get any worthwhile support and outlet from operators and handset manufacturers.  Now with Apple’s AppStore the market has completely changed in their favour, Apple having the faith and confidence to prove that users will buy apps if they can get hold of them easily and at the right price.  If a newbie to mobile could do it, why couldn’t the operators?

 

 

What will be the top trends in 2009?

 

Google’s Android should make a bigger impact in 2009 as more handset manufacturers look for an open source smartphone operating system.  Nokia’s more mature Symbian OS may be regarded as too much of a threat coming from a competitor, as well as being regarded, rightly or wrongly, as yesterday’s technology. 

 

In that respect Chinese handsets may migrate from being cheap clones to a realistic alternative to the established manufacturers, especially with value for money being a critical motivator in a recession.  Bespoke handsets from Zzzphone and others could define a new market for those wanting something different and sparkly.

 

Handset technology will also continue to be ramped up.  Touch screens, GPS, 5 & 8Mpx cameras will become the new standard.  Perhaps the other networks will learn from Three and introduce their own high end integrated application handsets; though I doubt they will based on their previous efforts.  We should also see improvements in memory capacity, processor speeds and not before time, 3D graphic capabilities.

 

Mobile Web 2.0 applications and widgets will make a real impact next year.  Facebook, VoIP, IM, presence, location and many other applications will all be more plentiful and usable as developers absorb the feedback from the first run of iPhone apps.  This experience will feed across all platforms.

 

FOTA (Firmware Over The Air) is already being used by Nokia to update handsets without the hassle of a PC or user intervention.  This may spread to other handsets and manufacturers, which can only be welcomed considering the abysmal standard of launch software.

 

A consequence of the recession will be an increasing number of SIM only deals benefitting customers and networks alike.  It costs the networks oodles of money subsidising handsets and non payment of contracts.  So by offering low tariffs and no shiny handset the networks are quids in.   The flip side is that more of the networks will want a 24month commitment before giving away a free handset.  That will be a commitment too far for many new and existing customers.

 

A threat to this network nirvana comes from the MVNO’s such as Tesco, Lycamobile and Blyk.  Tesco are aggressively targeting their regular customers with cheap Tesco branded deals and supporting this expanded venture with new in-store departments focused on all things telecom.  With Tesco’s having better deals than their carrier network, T-Mobile, the existing operators should be worried. 

 

Lycamobile may be a newbie niche MVNO player but it offers exceptionally low international calling rates Asia, Africa and Eastern Europe.  This could attract a heck of a big niche targeted through corner and community shops.

 

 

What technology should we watch in 2009?

 

Invariably there will be at least one new Apple iPhone hopefully with a useful camera this tie round, and substantial improvements to the software feature (MMS, Copy & Paste, multi tasking, security etc)

 

Nokia’s Ovi is going through rapid feature enhancement and increasingly the disparate elements will be knitted together creating a mobile & web service that will directly challenge Google.  The final integration of Symbian into Nokia’s corporate structures will allow Nokia to accelerate these advances.

 

Network technology such as HSPA+ and LTE will continue to evolve, though 2009 will be the year of WiMAX. It is debatable Whether WiMAX will make much of an impact in Western Europe but in many emerging markets WiMAX offers broadband where fixed broadband and telephony are impossible to deploy. 

 

Sometimes innovations come with a fair few problems.  One of these will be integrated projectors.  Mini projectors are already being used to project images and text of questionable taste on peoples’ walls.  This will rapidly become a more invasive problem with the integration of mini projectors into mobiles. 

 

NFC (Near Field Communication or Oyster cards to Londoners) may just make an introduction in some lower end handsets.  Although the security flaws found in NFC may stall wide scale acceptance, the convenience of touch and go may override some objections.

 

 

Any still unannounced products that we need to keep on our radar?

 

There will obviously be a new iPhone (4G?) and possibly an iPhone Nano, plus a plethora of Android based handsets.  HTC will of course also scatter more Microsoft Mobile devices into the market, though whilst the hardware will be top notch the same will not be said of Windows Mobile.  Without Windows Mobile 7 in 2009 Microsoft’s user interface will look increasingly tired, especially against Android. 

 

The more interesting devices will launch later in 2009 to support WiMAX and HSPA+ networks rolling out in some countries.  It will be interesting to see if the more established monoliths make the commercial decision to sweat their existing network for every dollar before plunging into 4G (LTE, Long Term Evolution) networks in 2010.

 

Nokia is guaranteed to have a radically improved product offering in 2009 after a dismal 2008.  With the leak of their smartphone roadmap and the announcements of the touch screen N97 and high speed 6260 Slide, Nokia should be able to halt the slide in its market share, though not in the volume of handsets shipped.

 

 

Any company that could make or break in 2009?

 

At the top of their game, Apple, Google, HTC and Samsung will be pushing forward in their various ways.  A resurgent Nokia will also strengthen their market position.

 

On the other side, Sony Ericsson seems to have lost confidence and, unlike Nokia, have no apparent strategy for pulling themselves up.   There is an ongoing rumour of a split between Sony and Ericsson, but both companies would be weakened with the potential demise of both as handset manufacturers.  The market doesn’t need another Benq-Siemens fiasco.

 

Motorola appear even more vulnerable.  Their smartphone strategy is in tatters with the loss of UIQ, and Android based handsets not expected until mid 2009.  They also have a less than stellar range of feature phones that are uncompetitive against those from Samsung, LG and Sony Ericsson.  Motorola seems to be in a terminal decline having laid off many core staff and lacking support from the European networks. 

 

For similar reasons, Palm appears to be reaching the end of the road.  Their Treo Pro looks too much like HTC’s network branded handsets.  With Android effectively taking the place of the Palm OS, it unfortunately seems that 2009 may be another unhappy year for Palm’s employees.

 

 

 

With Nokia being so quiet and the recession sadly starting to bite, at least Apple and Google have cheered us up this year.  Though 2009 will be very difficult, we can look forward to many more interesting new handsets and services arising from all the behind the scenes work in 2008.