Whilst the rest of the world has suffered from the credit crunch and banks are propped up by our taxes, the mobile industry has ploughed on regardless.

 

The market for mobile technology continues to expand dramatically.  3G & GSM usage has risen with over 3.3billion 3G/GSM subscribers by the end of third quarter of this year (Source GSA).  High speed mobile access continues to grow with now more than 65million subs and 960 plus devices to support the ever growing user numbers.  The market is expanding at a phenomenal pace.

 

But what, in my opinion, have been the most important events of 2008 and what can we expect for 2009.

 

Starting with what have been the best mobile products of 2008

 

These last 12 months has seen the Asian manufacturers embrace touch screen technologies as the way into the mass market.  LG, Samsung, HTC, have all brought out significantly improved and diverse handsets.  But it is Apple that has captured users’ hearts.

 

The original iPhone was so crippled by the lack of applications and 3G data that apart from the, admittedly many, early adopters the original iPhone launch in 2007 was a massive disappointment.  Apple learnt some hard lessons, especially in Europe.  Customers used to high end devices being heavily subsidised were never going to buy a technically backward mobile at a premium price.

 

That all changed with the iPhone 3G that not only gave the world the best mobile phone media player and screen, but also access to decent HSDPA mobile speeds on competitive tariffs and at little upfront cost.  This was uniquely combined with the breathtaking usability of an application store that made it the simplest and cheapest method of getting fun new apps.  Compare and contrast with the mobile networks and other handset manufacturers paltry efforts, and Apple has dominated the third party app market in 2008.

 

Nokia on the other hand seemed to just plod on in its rut of selling the widest range of inoffensive mobiles to as many people as it can.  Notably different was the introduction of the E71, one of the highest calibre handsets from Nokia this year.  With an all metal construction, every connectivity option going, and a reasonable media spec, it has singularly raised Nokia’s profile in the business and professional user market.  In many respects it has put the chunkier N series range of handsets into the shadows.

 

RIM, having seen the threat from Apple inclusion of ActiveSync as businesses migrate to free push email, came back strongly in the last half of the year with the Bold and Storm.  Unfortunately these were rushed to market so whilst the Bold looked good it performed badly with many reported problems especially on Orange.

 

Not without its own bugs, the Storm has nonetheless refreshed BlackBerry’s image as an innovative brand in most users’ minds.  With one of the largest touch screens, and an improved media player, the Storm keeps the pressure on Apple, HTC and especially Nokia.

 

When it comes to advances in media capture, Samsung, LG and Sony Ericsson lead the way.  All have introduced 8mpx camera handsets, but it seems that Samsung has surprised the market by pushing Nokia’s N series to one side with the class leading Symbian based i8510 INNOV8 with 8mpx camera.  No doubt Nokia could create a better handset, but it hasn’t yet.

 

 

What devices or technology have disappointed me the most?

 

For me the biggest disappointment of the year was the failure of Apple to introduce multitasking for iPhone third party applications.  Even some feature phones allow some applications to run concurrently.  Other disappointments were the inability of side-loading applications without having to jailbreak the iPhone first, and impoverished Bluetooth support.

 

Nokia has had a bad time this year as well.  With a shrinking market share and little impact in the US, it is terrible to see such a great company temporarily taking a break from innovation and quality. 

 

The launch of their spear head device of 2008, the N96 in February, offered little to differentiate itself from the preceding N95 8GB.   Much delayed and only available from November, a full 9 months after it was initially shown, the N96 came to market with too many flaws.  It was just too similar in form factor to the cheaper N95 8GB, with its TV capabilities of no use in most countries.  It also shipped with software faults that considering it was an evolutionary device, was quite unforgiveable.

 

Similarly, the Sony Ericsson X1 was late to market and seems downright antiquated with very poor usability in comparison to other HTC manufactured devices.  On the upside voice quality is superb when you can actually make a call.  Perhaps all will come right once Windows Mobile 7 is released, though for HTC and Xperia users this won’t evidently happen until 2010.  Apple and RIM must be pleased.

 

High speed data continues to impress and disappoint in equal measures.  Whilst theoretically offering unlimited mobile broadband, many users are finding that their dictionary interpretation of unlimited differs from those of the operators.  Some unlimited deals top out at 500MB and then only if used in the UK.  Expect a large, very large, bill if surfing abroad, even if using a partner network.  Will the EU finally sort this problem out?  I doubt they will to any great extent, especially with operators facing falling revenues.

 

High speed data also faces more problems with less than national or even city coverage due to under investment.  This has certainly not been helped by the networks attempting to sell high speed mobile data as some sort of home broadband replacement which is saturating the network infrastructure and reducing transmission speeds to a crawl.

 

Unexpectedly shown the exit doors were Nokia’s Intellisync and, less unexpectedly, UIQ.  Both products had a loyal following, but UIQ was never going to survive with S60 Touch and then Symbian being absorbed into Nokia.  Of more concern was the frankly disgraceful abandoning of business customers by Nokia’s perfunctory closure of its Intellisync division, leaving many companies and organisations future mobile strategies in tatters.

 

 

What are the highlights of 2008?

 

Without doubt the launch of the iPhone 3G, with the 2.1 software, has completely changed the market.  As mentioned earlier, the original iPhone was a popular niche product, but the iPhone 3G is a revelation in design and third party application support through the AppStore (not withstanding my other criticisms!)

 

Google’s Android OS rattled the market with the launch of T-Mobile’s G1 handset yet suffered under the glare of the iPhone 3G.  Android shows great promise, though it will take a year or two to settle in as a main stream alternative to Symbian and Apple. 

 

At the lower end of the market there has been wave after wave of new handset introductions all seemingly aimed at giving users the best feature set at the cheapest price.  For me though the best low end handsets both come from 3, the Skype Phone 2 and the INQ1.

 

Fantastically well priced yet offering a feature set targeted at young & web savvy customers, these two handsets give users exactly what they need, easy to access Web 2 applications where ever they want to use them.  Facebook, LastFM, Skype, broadband modem, all at their finger tips.  Simply brilliant.

 

A mobile browser war seems to have developed in 2008.  With Microsoft’s Mobile Explorer seeming moribund, Opera is now shipping as the true face of the internet for Windows Mobile based handsets.  Though coming from opposing sides are Skyfire and Iris.  Though both are in Beta they seem to be worthy competitors to Nokia’s and Microsoft’s efforts.

 

It’s also been impressive watching Nokia concentration on developing a market dominating consumer portal.  Not only has Nokia overpowered the objections of most major networks with (poorly) competing services, they have also become the teenagers’ friend with the launch of “Comes With Music”, the all you can consume music portal. 

 

Though it’s not only media consumption.  Producing content, especially live video broadcasting through Qik, Livecast and others has turned many people into on the spot journalists especially in yet another troubled year.

 

 

Who has shone in the mobile sector in 2008?

 

Apple of course, but also the BBC.  The iPlayer (with a lot of help from the iPhone 3G and the high speed networks) has turned mobile TV from an abject failure to a success story.  Now that the user can control what they want to view, on-line video snacking and podcasts from BBC’s iPlayer is replacing the low quality efforts that the networks tried to foist on their subscribers.

 

Remarkably Three has reaffirmed its leading position in services and network value in 2008, with a string of new handset launches, tariffs, dongles, services and most especially ‘getting’ what users want!  Easy access to all the web applications they use at home, but especially Skype, Facebook and my favourite, LastFM.   It also embraced Nokia’s Comes with Music rather than fighting it.

 

Another mention must go to all the applications developers that year after year have struggled to get any worthwhile support and outlet from operators and handset manufacturers.  Now with Apple’s AppStore the market has completely changed in their favour, Apple having the faith and confidence to prove that users will buy apps if they can get hold of them easily and at the right price.  If a newbie to mobile could do it, why couldn’t the operators?

 

 

What will be the top trends in 2009?

 

Google’s Android should make a bigger impact in 2009 as more handset manufacturers look for an open source smartphone operating system.  Nokia’s more mature Symbian OS may be regarded as too much of a threat coming from a competitor, as well as being regarded, rightly or wrongly, as yesterday’s technology. 

 

In that respect Chinese handsets may migrate from being cheap clones to a realistic alternative to the established manufacturers, especially with value for money being a critical motivator in a recession.  Bespoke handsets from Zzzphone and others could define a new market for those wanting something different and sparkly.

 

Handset technology will also continue to be ramped up.  Touch screens, GPS, 5 & 8Mpx cameras will become the new standard.  Perhaps the other networks will learn from Three and introduce their own high end integrated application handsets; though I doubt they will based on their previous efforts.  We should also see improvements in memory capacity, processor speeds and not before time, 3D graphic capabilities.

 

Mobile Web 2.0 applications and widgets will make a real impact next year.  Facebook, VoIP, IM, presence, location and many other applications will all be more plentiful and usable as developers absorb the feedback from the first run of iPhone apps.  This experience will feed across all platforms.

 

FOTA (Firmware Over The Air) is already being used by Nokia to update handsets without the hassle of a PC or user intervention.  This may spread to other handsets and manufacturers, which can only be welcomed considering the abysmal standard of launch software.

 

A consequence of the recession will be an increasing number of SIM only deals benefitting customers and networks alike.  It costs the networks oodles of money subsidising handsets and non payment of contracts.  So by offering low tariffs and no shiny handset the networks are quids in.   The flip side is that more of the networks will want a 24month commitment before giving away a free handset.  That will be a commitment too far for many new and existing customers.

 

A threat to this network nirvana comes from the MVNO’s such as Tesco, Lycamobile and Blyk.  Tesco are aggressively targeting their regular customers with cheap Tesco branded deals and supporting this expanded venture with new in-store departments focused on all things telecom.  With Tesco’s having better deals than their carrier network, T-Mobile, the existing operators should be worried. 

 

Lycamobile may be a newbie niche MVNO player but it offers exceptionally low international calling rates Asia, Africa and Eastern Europe.  This could attract a heck of a big niche targeted through corner and community shops.

 

 

What technology should we watch in 2009?

 

Invariably there will be at least one new Apple iPhone hopefully with a useful camera this tie round, and substantial improvements to the software feature (MMS, Copy & Paste, multi tasking, security etc)

 

Nokia’s Ovi is going through rapid feature enhancement and increasingly the disparate elements will be knitted together creating a mobile & web service that will directly challenge Google.  The final integration of Symbian into Nokia’s corporate structures will allow Nokia to accelerate these advances.

 

Network technology such as HSPA+ and LTE will continue to evolve, though 2009 will be the year of WiMAX. It is debatable Whether WiMAX will make much of an impact in Western Europe but in many emerging markets WiMAX offers broadband where fixed broadband and telephony are impossible to deploy. 

 

Sometimes innovations come with a fair few problems.  One of these will be integrated projectors.  Mini projectors are already being used to project images and text of questionable taste on peoples’ walls.  This will rapidly become a more invasive problem with the integration of mini projectors into mobiles. 

 

NFC (Near Field Communication or Oyster cards to Londoners) may just make an introduction in some lower end handsets.  Although the security flaws found in NFC may stall wide scale acceptance, the convenience of touch and go may override some objections.

 

 

Any still unannounced products that we need to keep on our radar?

 

There will obviously be a new iPhone (4G?) and possibly an iPhone Nano, plus a plethora of Android based handsets.  HTC will of course also scatter more Microsoft Mobile devices into the market, though whilst the hardware will be top notch the same will not be said of Windows Mobile.  Without Windows Mobile 7 in 2009 Microsoft’s user interface will look increasingly tired, especially against Android. 

 

The more interesting devices will launch later in 2009 to support WiMAX and HSPA+ networks rolling out in some countries.  It will be interesting to see if the more established monoliths make the commercial decision to sweat their existing network for every dollar before plunging into 4G (LTE, Long Term Evolution) networks in 2010.

 

Nokia is guaranteed to have a radically improved product offering in 2009 after a dismal 2008.  With the leak of their smartphone roadmap and the announcements of the touch screen N97 and high speed 6260 Slide, Nokia should be able to halt the slide in its market share, though not in the volume of handsets shipped.

 

 

Any company that could make or break in 2009?

 

At the top of their game, Apple, Google, HTC and Samsung will be pushing forward in their various ways.  A resurgent Nokia will also strengthen their market position.

 

On the other side, Sony Ericsson seems to have lost confidence and, unlike Nokia, have no apparent strategy for pulling themselves up.   There is an ongoing rumour of a split between Sony and Ericsson, but both companies would be weakened with the potential demise of both as handset manufacturers.  The market doesn’t need another Benq-Siemens fiasco.

 

Motorola appear even more vulnerable.  Their smartphone strategy is in tatters with the loss of UIQ, and Android based handsets not expected until mid 2009.  They also have a less than stellar range of feature phones that are uncompetitive against those from Samsung, LG and Sony Ericsson.  Motorola seems to be in a terminal decline having laid off many core staff and lacking support from the European networks. 

 

For similar reasons, Palm appears to be reaching the end of the road.  Their Treo Pro looks too much like HTC’s network branded handsets.  With Android effectively taking the place of the Palm OS, it unfortunately seems that 2009 may be another unhappy year for Palm’s employees.

 

 

 

With Nokia being so quiet and the recession sadly starting to bite, at least Apple and Google have cheered us up this year.  Though 2009 will be very difficult, we can look forward to many more interesting new handsets and services arising from all the behind the scenes work in 2008.