Although mobile data has been available to businesses and some consumers from the 80’s, it wasn’t until the advent of WAP that mobile data went main stream.  There were of course data cards for laptops and PDA’s but they were slow, expensive and clumsy to use.

 

Many people remember the launch of the first UK mass market WAP service at the turn of the millennium, BT Cellnet’s Silver Surfer.  Unfortunately the mobile industry over promised the concept of the mobile web.  Even though home internet users were relying on low speed dial up the best mobile speeds offered by Orange could only reach a maximum of 14.4 kbps (28.8kbps if you were very lucky) and what could be displayed on a typical, buggy, handset amounted to a glorified, and monochrome, Ceefax.  This was also at a very high per minute price and using the service effectively blocked any incoming calls.  The other major turn off was the excruciatingly painful process of waiting minutes to get to the first ‘page’ and then many, many seconds for the next.  Once there the services provided were simplistic and invariably pointless.

 

 

In 2000 packet data GPRS (2.5G) provided a welcome boost of speed, around 43kbps, a reduction in latency (in simplistic terms the time it takes to send a request and get the answer back) and allow incoming calls.  Unfortunately GPRS used the spare bandwidth not being used for voice, so if a lot of people were talking near a base station the data speeds could actually be less than the old service.  Also content still depended on what the operators thought users should have (known as a walled garden) which a lot of the time wasn’t what users wanted.  Costs were still very high being priced on a per kilobyte basis with some people incurring massive hundred of pound bills.  The horror stories frightened off many potential users who instead relied on SMS services for most of their mobile data needs.  At least that was something they could understand the benefit of, and control the cost.  Other new data services failed such as MMS (Multimedia Messaging) because they were confusing and expensive.

 

Importantly there were however two services which really prospered, BlackBerry in the West and iMode in Japan.  This kept the idea of mobile data from disappearing entirely.

 

Even the launch of 3G in 2003 did not really help.  WCDMA (3G to most people) provided much faster data transmission providing services such as video clip streaming and downloading, and simultaneous voice calls and data surfing, (so you can check your bank balance whilst talking to a friend).  However the handsets were clumsy, had little battery life, content was of variable quality and most users could not see the point of video calls.  Since then 3 has predominately sold their network on cheap voice calls with some success, tempered with a high turnover in users (churn) for a variety of business reasons. 

 

Since 2005, users have become more aware of what the mobile internet can really do for them with the release of quality handsets from European manufacturers such as the Nokia’s 6630, 6680, N80, N95 and Sony Ericsson’s P990, K800 etc.  For business users the network branded HTC handsets have expanded the office computer systems to employees on the road.  Nurses, sales people, engineers are all benefiting from advances in web based technology that they can securely access through their mobile phones. 

 

Major usage problems remained.  The screens tend to be too small, the user interface too clumsy and usage costs far, far too high.   

 

2007 has seen a fundamental change.  With the advent of the iPhone, the concept of using the internet on the move has been given a phenomenal boost.  Although the iPhone relies on old 2¾G technology (EDGE), the usability of web services has been exponentially advanced.  Also with flat rate data being offered by all the mobile networks users can surf the internet confident that they can afford the monthly cost.

 

2006/7 also saw the launch of Web2 services for mobiles such as Skype, eBay, and Facebook.

 

 

The other major advance in 2007 saw the start of the evolution to 4G.  Unlike the jumps from 1G to 2G to 3G, this is being undertaken in small but significant stages.

 

The launch of HSPA (High Speed Packet Access 3.5G) is shifting users expectations.  They can now expect data speeds approaching, and some times exceeding, their home based ADSL broadband connections.  Vodafone and some other networks currently supports 7.2Mbps download and 1.4Mbps upload speeds in some areas.  This will be broadened out to cover more of the UK over the next few years.  Unlike previous network evolutions, the handsets and applications are in place to take advantage of these speeds, so in the instance of Nokia’s latest handsets, they come with native YouTube capabilities allowing the same users desktop experience on their handset. 

 

So far this has been good for the networks as some have seen phenomenal growth in HSPA data volumes, with Nokia Siemens reporting a 350% rise in data use in 6 months for one network.

 

Users now want to be connected to the internet all the time.  There is an expectation that friends and colleagues are available 24/7 and that the applications used at home or at work should also be with them on their mobile.  This will increasingly mean that developments on the web will happen regardless of the device, computer or mobile accessing it.  This will require more and more bandwidth and, importantly, speed of access will become paramount.  BlackBerry shows the mobile industry that users will not tolerate any more delays in receiving information.

 

To achieve the improvements in latency, speed and capacity a new system is being developed.  Often called 4G, it is known as LTE (Long Term Evolution) where the existing HSPA infrastructure is being reused to allow for download speeds of 173Mbps and upload speeds of 58Mbps; and potentially a lot higher.   Mobile TV would no longer require a separate infrastructure to be built, as being proposed at the moment.

 

Latency will also be reduced from the GPRS 600ms to around 10ms, which will allow mobile on line gaming to be a reality.   Multi location video conferencing in high definition will also be viable.  With pico projectors inbuilt into handsets, it may even be usable.

 

All of this is all being achieved by using existing frequencies to get around the ad hoc allocation of frequencies by governments. 

 

There are however big issue for the networks. 

 

Firstly, as data capacity to individual handsets increase, the backhaul from base station to network to internet will become increasingly saturated, and may not keep up with demand.   

 

Secondly, WiMAX will also cause a headache.  Even though it, and WiFi, can be integrated into a 4G service, this will require the networks to invest in the new WiMAX start ups.  If they don’t they could see their future revenue streams undermined in the profitable city centres. 

 

Thirdly, the mobile networks may not see a return on their investment.  As voice becomes just another data service, the mobile networks will become just another bit pipe for all sorts of peer 2 peer streaming services, be it voice, video or games.  The trick may be that as LTE also offers definable Quality of Service (QoS) the networks could charge a premium price for service consistency, something that is already being discussed for fixed broadband.

 

 

There is real excitement in the mobile industry, and perhaps there should be some fear.  Technology, users and handset manufacturers may usurp the network operators’ control of the market they created.  4G has the potential to connect 5 billion people by 2015, so astute marketing will be even more important over the next few years.